马丁·沃尔夫:全面敌视中国比冷战更具破坏性

英国《金融时报》网站近日发表该报首席经济评论员马丁·沃尔夫的文章《一个世界两种制度的挑战》称,对中国的全面敌视可能比冷战更具破坏性,世界需要学会与崛起的中国竞争与合作,否则只会加深敌意和加剧混乱。参考消息网编译全文如下:

三方势力都在“忧虑”

最近的三个迹象显示出中国崛起为当今世界“新兴超级大国”所引发的忧虑。一个是针对华为的运动,该公司是中国技术雄心的旗手,必须在美国与中国展开贸易战以及美国将中国描述为“战略竞争者”的背景下看待这场运动。另一个是以自由贸易为导向的德国主要行业协会德国工业联合会发文,将中国列为“伙伴和系统性竞争者”。最后一个是乔治·索罗斯把中国描述为“最危险的对手”。

因此,在这一点上,一个奉行民族主义的美国政府、德国自由贸易者和自由思想重要支持者一致认为:中国不是朋友。往好了说,它是一个令人不快的伙伴;往坏了说,它是一个敌对大国。

我们应该得出新的冷战已经开始的结论吗?答案是:应该,也不应该。

说“应该”,是因为很多西方人认为中国是一个战略、经济和意识形态威胁。不过,答案也是“不应该”,因为对华关系和对苏联的关系截然不同。中国不是在输出一种全球意识形态,而是在以一个正常的大国姿态行事。而且,与苏联不同的是,中国融入了世界经济。

结论是,对中国的全面敌视可能比冷战更具破坏性。首先,如果中国人民认为西方的目标是阻止他们享受更好的生活,那么敌意将是无穷无尽的。合作将土崩瓦解。然而,没有一个国家能够在今天成为孤岛。

西方失败不怪别人

避免这样的崩溃还为时不晚。正确的道路是处理好既有竞争又有合作的关系。换言之,人们必须考虑到复杂性。这是成熟的处事方式。

这样一来,我们需要认识到,美国及其盟友拥有巨大的优势。中国的崛起是惊人的。但总体而言,相比中国,美国及其盟友的防务开支要多得多,经济规模更大,在世界进口中所占的份额也更大。此外,中国对高收入国家市场的依赖远远超过美国对中国的依赖。正如彼得森国际经济研究所的尼古拉斯·拉迪指出的,这些优势很可能会持续下去。

▲资料图片:2018年7月11日,比利时布鲁塞尔,北约峰会召开,与会领导人出席会议。(视觉中国)

此外,西方最近的失败显然完全是自己造成的:不应归咎于他人,无论那种选择可能多么有吸引力。

美国应该以比中国更为平和的心态看待自己的处境,前提是它保留自己的联盟网络,尤其是考虑到它的地理位置和经济实力。如果做到这一点,它还能认识到它与中国的相互依赖是一股稳定的力量,因为这加强了双方对和平关系的兴趣。

同样,美国将认识到,在它创建的以规则为基础的贸易体系背景下,与盟友联手将加大对中国改革的压力。对中国来说,在支持全球协议方面作出让步要比回应美国的双边压力容易得多。如果这需要改革世界贸易组织的规则,那也没什么问题。

新的大国已经崛起

合作与相互依赖同样重要。没有与中国的合作,我们就无法管理全球环境或确保繁荣与和平。此外,如果每个国家都被迫选边站,国家之间和国家内部将再次产生深刻和代价高昂的分歧。

这一切并不意味着西方国家需要接受中国想要的一切。对双方来说,收购具有重要战略意义的企业都是被禁止的,这是合理的。与此同时,如果确实有证据表明某些公司存在于我们的经济中会产生战略危险,那么就应该对它们采取行动。但这里重要的是有“证据”。

一个新的大国已经崛起。作为回应,许多人试图将世界转入一个不受约束的战略竞争时代。历史表明,这是危险的。相反,需要做的是与一个崛起的中国竞争与合作。另一种选择将是加深敌意和加剧混乱。任何明智的人都不应该希望这样。

来源: 参考消息 2019年2月10日


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