美通过《亚洲再保证倡议法》 再碰“一中”底线

 

根据美国国会刚刚(当地时间12月17日)发出的最新新闻公报,半年前美参众两院酝酿的“2018亚洲再保证倡议法案”(Asia Reassurance Initiative Act of 2018),已在美东时间12月4日及12日分别经参、众两院一致赞同表决通过。

据多名美国会议员向媒体表示,该法案提供了美国亚太政策架构,以强化美国在印太区域的领导地位,并展现对于所谓自由开放的印太区域及以规则为基础的国际秩序的承诺。 

该法案通过每年授权拨款15亿美元,来进一步加强美国在亚太地区的存在感,以确保一个自由开放的印太地区,和以规则为基础的秩序。它包括了军事和经济参与,目的是在海上与网络安全、防扩散、航行自由等方面,与条约盟国和东南亚国家加强合作。

虽然这项法案不是特朗普政府所提议,而是由参院外委会亚太小组主席贾德纳(Cory Gardner)领衔提出,但内容与一年前特朗普政府公布的“国家安全战略报告”和“国防战略报告”如出一辙。该法案明显地主要针对中国,而且将日澳印视为美国最可信赖的区域安全合作伙伴。

该法案第209条“对台湾之承诺”中,纳入多项支持台湾的条文,严重挑战中国“一中”底线,主要包括:

1、重申对台承诺:美国对台政策为:(1)支持台湾与美国密切之经济、政治及安全关系;(2)忠实执行美国基于1979年“台湾关系法”、三个联合公报及“六项保证”等美国政府所有对台承诺;(3)反制改变台湾现状之举措,支持可为台海两岸均接受的和平解决方案。

2、强化对台军售:美国总统应常态性提供符合台湾需求之防御物资,以因应来自中华人民共和国既有及未来可能之威胁,包括支持台湾发展与整合具机动性、耐存活性,且具成本效益之不对称战力。

3、鼓励高官互访:美国总统应依据“台湾旅行法”(又译“与台湾交往法”)鼓励美国高阶官员访台,并接受台高级官员访美。

由于该法案在付诸美国参众两院全体会议分别表决之前,已经对法案内容做了整合,由两院共同提出,且获得国会两院一致通过,加上法案内容符合特朗普政府公开宣示的对外政策,又没有损害总统的外交决策权,因此,预料很快会由特朗普签署成为法律,而不会再有任何文字修改或时间拖延。这也说明,不管美国两党在内政上的争斗多么激烈,但在对外政策尤其是对华政策上少有分歧。

在前不久中美领导人峰会达成暂停经贸摩擦的共识之后,美国国会和政府仍持续推动一系列对华不友好政策,除了国会最新通过这个涉台法案,还有孟晚舟女士被捕事件,多名华人、华裔被以商业间谍罪陆续逮捕和审判等。

在我看来,中美关系始终围绕着两条主线展开博弈:

  一是围绕经济利益展开的经贸争端。其中大部分基于合作共赢的原则,是可以且可能与美国达成妥协的。具体2019年2月底见分晓。

  二是因为价值观不同,在政治、军事、外交领域的斗争。这方面双方妥协的空间越来越小,争端是长期的,而且只会越来越恶化。

无论贸易争端双方签署一个“双赢”的全面合作协议,还是最终一拍两散,有两点是可以肯定的:第一,中国经济都会经受大的挑战,只是程度上有所不同;第二,中美关系绝不可能再回到从前。也就是说,中国发展的外部环境确实发生了很大变化。

外部环境的变化,深刻地影响着每一个中国人的生活。最近股市跌跌不休,就与此密切相关。目前大多数普通百姓还感觉不到这种变化,但未来半年,会有越来越多的人对此有深切体会。

程坦   世事新说


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