《非显著趋势》的作者从CES上看到了什么?

李骥(威汉集团联合创始人)

2018年1月8日,拉斯维加斯阴雨。《非显著趋势》的两位作者罗希特•巴尔加瓦(Rohit Bhargava)和陈一枬(Viveca Chan)分别从旧金山和华盛顿赶来,参加每年一度的消费类电子领域内的巅峰盛会CES。

 

罗希特•巴尔加瓦是美国知名的趋势学者、策略咨询师和畅销书作者。他来自广告公司策划人背景,十余年来潜心研究社会、经济、科技、媒体和营销趋势,独创“非显著趋势”(Non Obvious Trends)的概念和研究方法,并自2011年开始出版《非显著趋势》年度报告,迄今已出版八部专著,为趋势研究提供了丰富而具持续性的洞察。

 

陈一枬女士则是中国广告传播界响当当的人物。她自上世纪八十年代起就领导国际性广告公司,并于2005年与伙伴们创立“中西共融”的独立营销传播集团WE Marketing Group(威汉营销传播集团)。多年横跨中西的职业生涯,让她对市场和营销趋势有独到的洞察和在地性的理解。

 

2016年,陈一枬与罗希特结识并一拍即和,展开合作。2016年,陈一枬率领威汉团队与罗希特一同工作,选择并深化了对中国市场最有意义的十五个“非显著趋势”,并与中信出版社合作出版了《非显著趋势 — 如何把握即将到来的机会?》

来自中、美的两位趋势和营销大咖,在CES这个科技之巅,又会发现什么样的“非显著趋势”呢?

1月10日晚,在一次由中美两地科技企业代表参加的工作坊上,罗希特与大家分享了他对CES的观察。他认为,他刚刚出版的《非显著趋势2018》里所总结的十五个趋势,其中有七个都在CES上得到了印证:

1, 预见性防护

 
智能互联产品和服务将能预测我们的行为和需求,并以此更主动保护我们的安全健康和环境。

(蓝牙头发分析器)

2,“质感”的价值

 
虚拟产品和体验扑面而来,消费者将回归那些他们能触模、感觉和感知的事物,以此获得一种安宁、简单和人性化体验。

(能模似日出渐亮光感,发出咖啡和烤面包香味的闹钟)

3, 光速般的学习

小型化、简易化的教育内容体验,提供从奇闻逸事到严肃知识的丰富信息,越来越让每一天都成为学习的过程。


“第三支眼”增强现实教育眼镜和App

4, 虚拟同理心

虚拟现实和其他技术与人性化动机相结合,创造通过外部和不熟悉的视野看世界的“沉浸式”可能,带来更强的“同理心”

Honda 3E机器人,展示机器人和AI在更多情景为人类提供帮助的理念

5,“人类模式”

当自动化越来越盛行时,人们将更渴望个人化的真实体验,并会为那些“真人”提供的服务支付更多溢价。

有性格的“社交机器人”

6,更“亲近”的豪华

“豪华”再也不以稀缺性和尊崇感论定,而是取决于将顾客置于核心的体验,以及因此创造的“终生记忆”。

价格平宜的4K电视成为主流

7,颠覆性的分销

各种类型的企业都在追求更高效率,创造与顾客的更直接的联系,并重新思考其商业模式,传统的分销体系因此会被重构。

自动驾驶的递送机器人

除了罗希特提出的上述七大趋势外,《非显著趋势》的另一位作者陈一枬女士也向笔者谈到她参加CES 2018的感受:

“很明显,世界已从‘移动第一’转化成‘AI第一’。如果过去是移动科技改变了我们的生活和沟通方式,现在植入到我们生活中的所有事物后面,将会是人工智能。“

“CES上压倒一切的是自动驾驶和智慧城市,但由于监管层面的问题,自动驾驶还需一段时日才会实现。更快发生的将会是智能家居、自我诊断和数字化医疗。”

“我印象最深的,是Amazon的开放系统,邀请每一个人为编制他们自已的Alexa, 这样更广的互动和外包,将不断增进Alexa的功能。”

(CES 2018随笔三)


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