预算法“卡”住税改 共和党参院版税改闯关难

New Jersey Gov.-elect Phil Murphy, center, speaks during a news conference in Newark, N.J., Monday, Nov. 13, 2017. Murphy was with Democratic congressman from New Jersey to voice their opposition to the tax reforms being pushed by the Trump administration. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)
图为墨菲日前于州众议会表达反对共和党税改法案。(美联社)

宾州大学华顿商学院分析模式显示,由于一项关键预算法规,将使参院共和党税改法案无法通过。报导指出,预算和解程序(reconciliation)受伯德法规(Byrd rule)的节制,而伯德法规要求待议法案在十年的预算窗口期后任何一年都不能增加国债。

该学院模式发现,共和党的“减税与就业法案”(TCJA)将降低联邦岁入同时增加国债,以致不符合十年窗口期相关规定,这表示TCJA不符预算和解程序(budget reconciliation)资格,而共和党正设法透过该程序推动税改法案过关。

该和解程序容许共和党以简单多数票决通过该法案,而不必受制于民主党的饶舌策略;共和党目前只掌握参院52席次。

税改法案必须遵循和解程序的一大堆规定,其中包括伯德法规,该法规有两项重要条文,一是法案在十年窗口期只能增加特定金额的国债(TCJA法案只能增加国债1兆5000亿元),二是在十年窗口期外不能增加任何国债。

根据宾大模式,TCJA符合第一项规定,但不符合第二项规定。该模式显示,共和党参议员若在十年窗口期后终止部分减税,或许能够使税改法案不超过1亿5000亿元的门槛;例如让法案中规定的所有个人减税在2025年后终止。

但TCJA的公司税等大幅度永久性减税,将使十年窗口期后的赤字增加。分析指出,TCJA将使十年窗口期后连续六年增加国债。

报告说:“宾大华顿学院模式预测,该税改法案将使2027年至2033年的每一年的岁入减少,这还不包括偿债业务的额外成本。相较之下,伯德法规禁止在十年预算窗口期后任何一年的岁入净值减少。因此依照我们的计算,参院TCJA修正案无法满足伯德法规其中一项关键规定。”因此共和党若要让税改法案在参院通过,必须对该法案进行重大修改。

文章来源: 世界日报 于

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