地球正式进入”美中争霸”全新世界格局

随着中国经济实力的不断壮大,政治影响力也日益增强,一个美中争霸的全新世界格局进入人们的视野。这一格局是如何形成,新的两极之间谁更占据先机呢?

自从冷战结束,美苏争霸的政治格局也宣告终结,世界走进一个多极化的发展轨道。然而根据政治学者、《新苏黎世报》专栏作家Ulrich Speck的分析,如今一个新的两极世界格局正在逐渐显出雏形,而这个两极则是美国和中国。

数十年来,中国一直保持着低调,扮演着西方的好学生角色。这一方面是为了完成其追赶西方的现代化建设工程:中国的权力精英只能在一个后共产主义的时代里找到救赎,他们必须把所有的一切都寄托在经济增长上。另一方面中国在大国政治中保持低调,也是因为1989/1991年苏东剧变所带来的震撼太深:苏联共产主义政权轰然倒塌,而如何避免重蹈苏联老大哥的覆辙,是北京掌权者的战略挑战。

而中国的这一战略目标达到了吗?至少从目前的表象来看,中国掌权者的战略是成功的。凭借打压、消费和大国意识形态,中共政权将权力紧握在手,并且对外展现出越来越多的自信。在很多领域,中国都渐渐地开始和欧美平起平坐,从人工智能到空军装备。过去的老说法和平崛起已经被遗忘,中国在地区和全世界都表现出自己的权力和领导欲望。而一带一路就是这样一个战略性的倡议,它所承载的是中国主导亚欧大陆的诉求。

微笑背后,谁都知道对方就是自己的对手

就是这样一个经济上现代化、政治上独裁的中国,步步为营地发展成为与美国抗衡的另一极。相比之下,俄罗斯经济趋弱,欧盟缺乏政治统一性,都不足以达到这样的级别。那么,在美国与中国这两个仅存的超级大国之间的较量,谁会是胜者呢?作者分析,美国占有显而易见的优势:

中国的制度缺乏稳定性,软实力不足,在国际上也没有多少朋友。而美国的经济活力更胜一筹,军事实力也明显占有,此外还握着全球权力游戏中最关键的一张王牌:遍及全世界的盟国和友邦。不过在这方面的关系已经开始出现变动,未来的不确定性正在继续发展。

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